Playing Over Pairs on Wet Boards

This is a multi-part series geared towards micro and small stakes players designed to help answer common questions raised while playing 6-max online No Limit Hold 'em.

By Ben “champstark” Starkweather

We've all had it happen to us at one point or another. The cards come out and we see two red aces, we make a standard raise to 3.5 times the big blind, and when the fish calls out of the small blind, all we can think about is how nice it will be to add that stack to our bankroll. Our dreams of Vegas and the effing Mirage are shattered, though, when the board rolls out 7h8h5d. Now all we are thinking about is how we can somehow get to showdown and hopefully avoid the inevitable 75o or 96s. It really doesn't have to be this painful, though. This column will break down the difficulty of playing over pairs on tough, wet boards, by analyzing hands both in and out of position, versus easy and difficult opponents, and how to maximize value while not donating your entire stack to that fish who thinks 75o is the nuts.

For all examples below, assume standard stack sizes of 100 big blinds each at $1/2 (simply for mathematical ease), playing at a typical online micro or small stakes table unless otherwise noted. The hands will be described differently from a typical hand history format in order to facilitate better discussion.

1. We are dealt KhKc in the cutoff (CO) and a weak player has limped under the gun (UTG). We elect to raise to a total of $9 to isolate the weak limper. Despite these intentions, the big blind (BB), an average player with whom we have little history, elects to call and the limper folds. The flop comes out, reading Ts8s6c and the BB checks to us. The pot is $21. What do we do?

Please take a moment and think about what you would do in this situation. If you elect to bet, how much would you bet?

We have two options in this situation, either checking or betting. Before we get to a decision regarding these options, let us first consider two things: what our opponent's range of hands looks like and what our hand range looks like to the opponent. Our opponent's hand range in this spot is typically going to be hands that are not weak enough to fold, yet not strong enough to raise. We cannot put our opponent on a very specific range because of our lack of information. That's totally OK. We know it's unlikely he has a hand that has hit two pair or better on this flop, as most average opponents are not going to call a preflop raise out of position with something like 97s or 86s.

So while it is true he could have something as strong as a set, his hand range is weighted more towards weaker holdings, many of which may simply fold to a bet. Our hand range can be fairly wide here, and certainly wider than our opponent's hand range, as we made a standard isolation raise in position to try and isolate a weak player. So our opponent is going to feel uncomfortable with calling a bet unless he has made a very strong hand, which as we stated above, is highly unlikely.

If you elected to bet in this situation, pat yourself on the back. Betting is the superior option in this situation. The reasoning is quite simple: there are many more hands we can get immediate value from in our opponent's range than there are hands that are either better than ours and/or hands that can successfully bluff us off our over pair. Sure our opponent will also be folding a lot, which is completely fine. Because it is difficult for our opponent to have a hand that is ahead of us or that can put pressure on our hand here, we must bet. Checking might be a better option on a flop (for example: 9s8s7s) where our opponent is much more likely to have a hand that is either better than ours or can put a ton of pressure on us.

How much should we bet?

Good players will always mention something called the stack to pot ratio (SPR) when they are attempting to parse out a bet size and make a decision regarding how to continue in a hand. Frankly, this concept is much more complicated than it needs to be. In this spot, with standard stack sizes, we have a hand with which we wish to get as much value as possible from our opponent. That means we should bet fairly large. There's no reason to putz around and bet something like $12 or even $15 (1/2-3/4 pot). Take a second and imagine yourself in the BB's shoes. Are you really folding to a $18 bet, but calling a $15 bet? The difference is 1.5 big blinds, and yes, that's only $3, but $3 every half hour or so of play can add a significant amount to your win rate in the long run.

When we have an over pair on a semi-wet board in position vs. an average opponent, typically the best play is going to be to bet, and bet strongly.

2. We are dealt AdAh UTG and open to $7. A bad, passive player who has played in approximately 75% of the hands dealt calls our raise from the button and everyone else folds. This seems like the ideal spot for us to win a big pot. The flop comes down 6c5c4c. The pot is $17 and we are first to act. What do we do?

Again, please take a moment and decide if you would check or bet.

This situation is a bit different from the first example in a number of ways. First (and most importantly), we are out of position. This is going to make playing this hand somewhat challenging. The same questions regarding hand range apply in this situation that did in the first example, however, and they allow us to create a framework for how we play the rest of the hand. Our opponent's hand range here can be almost any two cards. We don't know if he would raise strong hands like JJ or AQ to our open, but we do know that he is probably calling our preflop raise with weak holdings such as T5s, 96o, and 54o. Unlike the first example above, our opponent's hand range certainly consists of lots of hands that hit this flop hard and are either ahead of us, or in very good shape.

At the same time, he can have lots of weak one pair hands and weak draws (think Qc9h or As8h) that are never folding to a single bet. Most players who are like this opponent are not going to be studiously examining our hand range like we are theirs, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't consider what our opponent thinks our hand range is. Weaker players who are passive and play many hands are concerned with only two things about their opponent's (i.e. our) hand range: bluffs, and the nuts. They are either going to assume that you are bluffing and call you down light, or fear that you have the absolute nuts (in their mind, that can be anything from an over pair to a straight flush). We must adjust our decision to bet or not accordingly.

Betting is, again, the superior play in this situation. Many people will elect to check this hand usually for one of the following reasons: pot control, fear of getting raised, seemingly small amount of value, and in some half-hearted hope to be able to get the opponent to bluff. All of these reasons are the result of poor conclusions regarding the opponent's hand range and what their reaction is to our hand range. If our opponent has a wide range of hands that will call and fold and a tiny range of hands that will raise, we don't need to worry about getting raised, controlling the pot, and most likely the opponent is not going to bluff as he's shown to be a passive player. Lastly, clearly here is value to be had from an opponent such as this one with such a wide range of weak draws and single pairs that we dominate.

Even out of position on a very wet board, against a passive player playing way too many hands, we can still get value by betting our over pair on the flop.

3. We are dealt QcQs on the button. It is folded to us and we make a standard open to 3.5 times the big blind, $7. A tough, aggressive (both preflop and postflop) player calls our raise out of the BB. The flop comes down 9s8s7c and the BB checks to us. The pot is $15. What do we do?

You know the drill, take a minute and think about what you would do.

This hand is a bit more complex than the previous hands, but at the same time, it is critical we do not think so hard about what to do that we reach the wrong conclusion. We still must assess both our opponent's hand range and what our opponent thinks is our hand range, yet at the same time it is going to be extremely important to think ahead in this hand since our opponent is capable of check-raising, calling with weaker holdings and then bluffing later streets, and perhaps even donk-betting (betting into the raiser or bettor) on the turn or river. For now, we can focus on what happens if we bet or check.

If we check, we close the action on the flop and see a turn card that can either help our hand, hurt our hand, or not change much of anything. If we bet, our opponent can either call, raise, or fold. While it may seem obvious, many good opponents are not calling a raise out of the blind to just simply check and fold a flop like this. They would simply put in the third raise preflop and try and win the pot then and there. So we can discount folding significantly from our opponent's potential reaction range to a bet. Calling to set up something later (whether it's check-raising the turn, donk-betting the turn, bluffing a spade, etc.) is certainly something our opponent can be doing. He could also have a legitimately strong hand in this situation, such as JT, 99, 88, 77, T9, or As7s and elect to call. Lastly, he can decide to check-raise for value with a strong hand, as a bluff with a very weak hand, or as a semi-bluff with a hand that has outs.

Given all of these facts, checking may seem like the better play as we can avoid a really tough spot if we get raised or if he calls and the turn comes poorly for us. Still, since we expect our opponent to have a such a wide range and he's capable of bluffing back at us, we should bet in this spot with the intention of calling a check-raise. Our bet is actually just a simple value bet. Our hand is better than the majority of his hand range. At the same time, our opponent can and will check-raise a variety of hands in this spot in an attempt to either get value or make us fold a hand that is better than this. We can safely call this check-raise and reevaluate on the turn because our hand is stronger than his check-raising range and because of position.

While these hands may seem simplistic in nature, they demonstrate that typically when you have an over pair on a wet board, it is almost always worth at least a flop bet. Don't freak out just because the board comes three of the same suit or three cards in a row—make sure to take into account your opponent's hand range, your perceived hand range, and your position before deciding to bet or to check.

If you learn best by hand history analysis, check out our best-selling poker book The NL Workbook by world-class players Tri Nguyen and Tom Marchese.